Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.467484 0.543708 0.625958 0.721006 0.827509 0.942855 1.076906
2025-04-06 0.346294 0.442929 0.555112 0.693860 0.859670 1.050254 1.284584
2025-04-13 0.255971 0.360217 0.490283 0.661941 0.879729 1.143888 1.485241
2025-04-20 0.199970 0.309420 0.455925 0.661534 0.937175 1.288055 1.761739
2025-04-27 0.152728 0.261203 0.417356 0.650467 0.980289 1.419999 2.038451
2025-05-04 0.119767 0.226663 0.392049 0.654069 1.044041 1.586484 2.378169
2025-05-11 0.092955 0.195575 0.366504 0.653805 1.102930 1.753380 2.736085
2025-05-18 0.066726 0.158452 0.324353 0.621645 1.111134 1.850264 3.006924
2025-05-25 0.046148 0.125290 0.281705 0.581355 1.101412 1.919994 3.245822
2025-06-01 0.034141 0.105505 0.258808 0.570910 1.138514 2.064823 3.610037
2025-06-08 0.024842 0.088179 0.236549 0.557698 1.169274 2.202833 3.976108
2025-06-15 0.019771 0.079483 0.230350 0.574325 1.254883 2.438308 4.515270
2025-06-22 0.013358 0.063857 0.205111 0.549782 1.265798 2.556285 4.885713
2025-06-29 0.009338 0.053156 0.188421 0.540148 1.304145 2.726145 5.357770
2025-07-06 0.006247 0.043295 0.170512 0.524039 1.327705 2.872639 5.803319
2025-07-13 0.004576 0.037896 0.163374 0.532086 1.402218 3.119227 6.441420
2025-07-20 0.003162 0.032142 0.152958 0.529812 1.454718 3.329799 7.032055
2025-07-27 0.002278 0.028253 0.147226 0.538788 1.533584 3.598309 7.746765
2025-08-03 0.001587 0.024521 0.140465 0.543559 1.603757 3.856042 8.459542
2025-08-10 0.000921 0.019321 0.125215 0.519946 1.603929 3.973535 8.918864
2025-08-17 0.000477 0.014617 0.108917 0.488352 1.579604 4.038092 9.281700
2025-08-24 0.000280 0.012087 0.101099 0.481944 1.617760 4.237119 9.917857
2025-08-31 0.000153 0.009844 0.093091 0.472622 1.646962 4.419231 10.532026